A Nation On Hold: Israel's Iran Policy In Limbo As World Awaits Results Of US Presidential Election

Israel’s top military and political leaders reportedly see the attack on Iran before dawn on Saturday (October 26), as the start of efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, much of this plan depends on Trump winning the US presidential election on November 5. A senior Israeli diplomatic source, on condition of anonymity since he is not authorized to speak to the media, told Al-Monitor that Israel needed to complete its mission in Iran. 

On October 1, Iran shot nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. It took Israel almost four weeks to act back. Friends and family of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advised him to leverage the attack on Iran by targeting its oil and gas infrastructure, along with its nuclear production and research sites. The Times, London, reported that the attack was postponed at least once. 

The Biden Administration, both privately and publicly, advised Israel against targeting these sites, and Netanyahu complied. Although some may view Joe Biden as a 'lame duck' president, Israel heavily depends on him because of his control over the US forces. However, it appeared that the US had coordinated with Israel on the attack, as they recently sent the THAAD air defence system and F-16 jets to the area. Biden mentioned to reporters that it seemed only military targets were hit and expressed the hope that this would be the end. 

Netanyahu Hopes Trump Wins

A source close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, speaking anonymously to Al-Monitor, expressed the hope that Trump would win next week. The source mentioned that, if Trump won, Netanyahu had a clear and organized plan ready. His team is in regular communication with Trump’s team. This topic was also discussed when Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of Trump, visited Israel recently. 

When asked if Netanyahu had a plan if Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, won, the insiders responded they did not know what to do in that situation. Netanyahu seems to hope that, if Trump returns, the US may support Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

An unnamed senior Israeli security official mentioned to Al-Monitor that Israel was experiencing a unique, and significant, change in its history. The official highlighted that two of Iran’s main allies near Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas, had currently been weakened. Additionally, Iran’s air defences were recently harmed. This situation presented a unique opportunity for Israel. 

The official also mentioned that, with the US focused on its elections, the timing could not be better for Israel. However, these ambitions go against the Netanyahu government’s goals, which include avoiding a wider regional conflict and a prolonged fight with Iran. If the US supports this plan, the situation may change. 

The security official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, mentioned that the attack was very successful. They believed it showed the Iranians how different Israel was. The difference lay in the fact that Iran’s missile attacks against Israel were without precision, while each Israeli attack on that country found a precise target, causing damage. Now, the Iranians have lost their surveillance and defence systems. Their ability to produce missiles is also impaired. Israel’s air force also took care to avoid harming the environment or civilians.

Will Iran Strike Back again?

On Saturday, Iranian officials and the media played down the impact of the Israeli attacks, claiming their defence was strong. However, by Sunday, they changed their tone. Sources from Al-Monitor suggest that Iran is close to deciding how to respond to the attack. Will it decide to launch many ballistic missiles, risking a full-scale war, or choose a more careful retaliation? 

The senior military source said they believed Israel was about to destroy Hezbollah. This belief was due to Israel killing the group’s top leaders last month and injuring thousands of Hezbollah members in a large explosion. The power balance between Israel and Hezbollah changed a lot after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, which weakened the group. By attacking Israel, Iran wanted to show that Hezbollah is not facing Israel alone. 

The senior military source said 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel to protect Hezbollah from a full-scale Israeli attack. Iran has invested billions in Hezbollah over the years. It is unclear if Iran has truly saved Hezbollah, but Tehran now faces a tough choice. An Israeli diplomatic source mentioned that Iran, like Netanyahu, might await the outcome of the US election. Unlike Netanyahu, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, prefers Harris. The Biden Administration is against an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, but Trump supported it on October 5. 

Biden will be limited in power until the new president takes the oath of office in January, but this may give him some flexibility. If Harris wins, Biden, probably, will not take unexpected action in those two months. But, if Trump wins, Biden may see it as his last chance to make an impact. He may impose stricter sanctions, boost US military presence near Iran, or quietly allow Israel to target Iran’s nuclear sites. 

President Biden was the key figure who could influence the future of the Middle East and the level of conflict between Iran and Israel, explained a senior Israeli diplomatic source. For about two months, Biden will not have to answer to anyone but himself. If Harris wins, those months will not change much. 

(Girish Linganna is a Defence and Aerospace Analyst based out of Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. The views expressed in this article are of the author only.)