Assembly Elections 2016: BJP to create history in Assam, Mamata to sweep West Bengal, Left to reclaim Kerala, Jayalalithaa on her way out?

Delhi: If exit polls are to be believed then Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will see a change of government on May 19 and West Bengal will maintain status quo.

On the other hand, DMK may win in Tamil Nadu and incumbent Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa's AIADMK may be thrown out of power.

Only West Bengal is said to have bucked the trend and Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is likely to be re-elected by defeating the Left-Congress alliance for a second consecutive term.

Counting of votes:

Counting of votes for the high stakes Assembly elections in five states will be held on Thursday morning with trends expected to be available by 11 AM. By 12 noon, a final picture could emerge on who would be the major players in the five states.

Election Commission officials said counting of votes, to commence at 8 AM, will be over by 3 PM.

The 'ballot unit' is switched on in the presence of senior poll officials and counting agents of candidates and the result command keyed in to get results per machine.

Where a paper trail audit or 'voter-verified paper audit trail' (VVPAT) has been used, the counting agent can call for a count of the paper slips in the drop box attached to the voting machine, but a final count is taken by the returning officer.

Once the results are declared, the names of the winning candidates will find mention in the gazette. The gazette notification will initiate the process to form the next legislative assemblies in the states.

What the exit polls said on May 16, 2016:

Assam:

The BJP-led alliance could bag 79 to 93 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly, three exit polls said. A fourth survey gave the BJP and its two allies - Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People's Front (BPF) - 57 seats, close to the critical half-way mark.

The India Today-Axis exit poll gave 79-93 seats to the BJP combine, 26-33 to the Congress and 6-10 to the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

ABP-Nielsen predicted 81 seats to the BJP coalition, 33 to the Congress and 10 to the AIUDF.

The NewsX Chanakya poll gave 90 seats to the BJP combine, 27 to the Congress and nine to the AIUDF. According to TimesNow C-Voter exit poll, the BJP and allies would get 57 seats, the Congress 41, AIUDF 18 and others 10.

West Bengal:

According to ABP-Nielsen, the Trinamool would win 163 of the 294 Assembly seats. The CPI-M-led Left Front and the Congress combine would get 126 with a solitary seat going to the BJP. Others would get four seats. But it warned that in 25 constituencies the margin of victory was set to be less than five percent, and the final outcome could drastically change depending on the results in these seats.

C-Voter also predicted 167 seats for the Trinamool, 75 for the Left, 45 for the Congress, four to the BJP and three to others. NewsX-Today's Chanakya predicted a whopping 210 (plus or minus 14) seats for the Trinamool, 70 (plus or minus nine) for the Left-Congress and 14 rpt 14 (plus or minus five) seats for the BJP.

Tamil Nadu:

The exit polls were divided over Tamil Nadu.

Three surveys predicted a defeat for Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. But a fourth said she would retain power comfortably, winning 139 of the 234 seats.

The News Nation TV exit poll gave 95-99 seats to the AIADMK and 114-118 to the DMK-Congress alliance. The People Welfare Front (PWF), made up of six parties, could get 14 seats and the BJP four seats. Nine seats could go to others.

The Axis-My India exit poll predicted 124-140 seats to the DMK-Congress alliance, 89-110 to the AIADMK, 0-3 to the BJP and 4-8 to others.

NewsX-Today's Chanakya predicted that DMK-Congress alliance would get 140 (plus or minus 11) seats and AIADMK winning 90 (plus or minus) nine seats.

C-Voter, however, gave 139 seats to the AIADMK and 78 to the DMK coalition.

Kerala:

In Kerala, however, the Left could return to power.

The India Today-Axis exit poll gave 88 to 101 seats to the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the 140-member house and 38-48 to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The BJP could get zero to three seats while one to four seats may go to others.

The India TV C-Voter exit poll predicted 74-82 seats to the LDF, which is led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M).

The NewsX-Today's Chanakya poll predicted 75 (plus or minus nine) seats for LDF and 57 (plus or minus nine) seats for the UDF. The BJP, it said, could get 8 (plus or minus four seats).

Puducherry:

Exit polls predicted a win for the DMK-Congress alliance in Puducherry too, ousting the ruling All India NR Congress.

(With Agency inputs)