Champions Trophy 2025: How New Zealand’s Win Over Bangladesh Could Eliminate Defending Champions Pakistan – Qualification Scenarios Explained

CT 2025: The Champions Trophy 2025 is heating up as Group A enters a decisive phase, with the upcoming clash between New Zealand and Bangladesh set to determine the fate of multiple teams. Mitchell Santner’s New Zealand will take on Najmul Hossain Shanto’s Bangladesh in Match 6 at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Monday, February 24.

Bangladesh in a Do-or-Die Situation

Having lost to India by six wickets in their opening game, Bangladesh find themselves in a must-win situation. A loss against New Zealand will eliminate both Bangladesh and Pakistan from the tournament, confirming India and New Zealand as the semifinalists from Group A. A win, however, keeps Bangladesh’s hopes alive and also gives Pakistan a slim chance of progressing.

Pakistan On The Verge Of Elimination: How Can They Qualify?

Pakistan, the defending champions, are also on the verge of elimination after back-to-back losses against New Zealand and India. Their only hope of staying in contention is for Bangladesh to defeat New Zealand on Monday. Additionally, they must secure a big-margin win over Bangladesh on Thursday (February 27) in Rawalpindi and hope India beat New Zealand in Dubai on Sunday, March 2.

Under this scenario, three teams New Zealand, Pakistan, and Bangladesh would be tied on two points each, and net run rate (NRR) would determine the second semifinalist alongside India. However, if New Zealand win on Monday or if the match ends in a draw due to rain, Pakistan’s campaign will officially come to an end.

New Zealand’s Qualification Scenario

For New Zealand, the path to the semifinals is straightforward a win against Bangladesh will confirm their spot in the knockout stage. If they lose, their hopes will depend on:

Pakistan beating Bangladesh on Thursday
New Zealand beating India on Sunday

Bangladesh’s Road to the Semifinals

Bangladesh’s best shot at qualification is:

Beating New Zealand on Monday
Defeating Pakistan on Thursday
Hoping India beat New Zealand on Sunday

If all this happens, Bangladesh will automatically qualify for the semifinals.

NRR Could Play A Crucial Role

In a highly competitive Group A, net run rate is expected to play a massive role in determining the second semifinalist if multiple teams end up with the same points. As the New Zealand vs Bangladesh clash approaches, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will Bangladesh keep their hopes alive, or will New Zealand punch their ticket to the semifinals and eliminate Pakistan in the process? All eyes will be on Rawalpindi as the tournament’s group stage enters a thrilling phase.